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RB · ATL · Atlanta Falcons · Bye 11

Bijan Robinson

ADP 1.02 · 2.1 · Underdog / consensus 2026-08-18

12-team, half PPR, redraft, 1QB

Compare

Last three years

Regular season. College years are labeled NCAA.

YearTeamGAttRush ydsRush TDRecRec ydsRec TD
2025NFLATL172871,4787798204
2024NFLATL173041,45614614311
2023NFLATL172149764584874

NFL from nflverse regular-season totals. College from ESPN. Target share is of team targets in the games the player played (NFL WR/TE only).

HoldPriced inConviction mediumData high

Bijan Robinson is the projected Falcons lead back.

Scheme is a clear upgrade for Bijan Robinson. Career-fit for Bijan Robinson (mostly zone in his career).

ADP
1.02 (2.1)
Target
1.02
Move
0
As of
2026-08-25

What changed

8 real changes. The rest held.

Pass blocking

neutralmedium

Was Matthews–Bergeron–Neuzil–Lindstrom–McGary

Now LT Jake Matthews, LG Matthew Bergeron, C Ryan Neuzil, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Jawaan Taylor (signed after McGary retired; elbow, not cleared)

80% snap continuity. Taylor's elbow is the RT variable, not the coordinator.

Backfield

upgradehigh

Was Bijan Robinson workhorse

Now Bijan Robinson remains the lead; Brian Robinson Jr. is the committee

Scheme is a clear upgrade for Bijan Robinson.

Quarterback

neutralhigh

Was Kirk Cousins / Michael Penix Jr.

Now Penix is the lead; Tua Tagovailoa signed as competition/insurance

Penix was recovering into camp. Tua is a live cloud, not a locked backup.

Play caller

neutralmedium

Was 2025 Falcons staff

Now OC Tommy Rees calls; Stefanski delegates

Stefanski is a run-first HC; Rees has the script.

Head coach

upgradehigh

Was Raheem Morris

Now Kevin Stefanski (hired 2026)

Stefanski offenses live on zone run and play-action. Robinson is the lead back.

Scheme & pace

upgradehigh

Was 2025 ~56% pass

Now Zone-heavy run, projected ~54% pass / 46% run

Career-fit for Bijan Robinson (mostly zone in his career).

Pass catchers

neutralmedium

Was London / Pitts / Cousins-era

Now Penix remains the starter; run tilt may trim targets

Target volume is the risk if the run game hits.

Tight end

upgrademedium

Was Kyle Pitts in mixed usage

Now Play-action TE seams are a Stefanski staple

Pitts' profile matches boot/PA more than a pure spread.

Continuity

Run blocking

neutrallow

Was Same core; McGary at RT

Now Lindstrom still the interior anchor; Taylor not practicing yet

Run-block talent is intact. Wait on Taylor before calling RT an upgrade.

Team environment

neutrallow

Was Morris 16-18

Now Stefanski year one, still a competitive NFC South

Not a tank, not a Super Bowl favorite.

Vacated volume

Targets
Carries
Red zone
Air yards

No high-confidence vacated-volume number published. Role change matters more than a target count.

Competition added

No meaningful new competition sourced.

This player

Projected role
Bijan Robinson is the projected Falcons lead back.
Usage
Projected lead-back volume for the Falcons.
Injury
No Week 1 absence reported as of August 20, 2026.
Contract
Not flagged as a 2026 hold-in.
Camp
Training camp underway as of August 2026. Week 1 is September.

Upside

Scheme is a clear upgrade for Bijan Robinson. Career-fit for Bijan Robinson (mostly zone in his career).

Downside

Camp could still change the job before Week 1.

Risks

  • New head coach: Stefanski offenses live on zone run and play-action. Robinson is the lead back.low

Sources

No source URLs were returned with this brief.

Notes come from the 2026 coaching and roster board (team sites, NFL.com, ESPN, The Athletic). Hold is the default when ADP already has the news.