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Josh Allen

ADP 4.01 · 36.5 · Underdog / consensus 2026-08-18

12-team, half PPR, redraft, 1QB

Compare

Last three years

Regular season. College years are labeled NCAA.

YearTeamGC/APass ydsPass TDINTRush ydsRush TD
2025NFLBUF16319/4603,668251057914
2024NFLBUF16307/4833,73128653112
2023NFLBUF17385/5794,306291852415

NFL from nflverse regular-season totals. College from ESPN. Target share is of team targets in the games the player played (NFL WR/TE only).

HoldPriced inConviction highData high

Locked Bills starter.

Play-caller continuity is the story. DJ Moore is the one real skill-room upgrade, and first-round ADP already has the name.

ADP
4.01 (36.5)
Target
4.01
Move
0
As of
2026-08-25

What changed

2 real changes. The rest held.

Head coach

neutralmedium

Was Sean McDermott (fired after 2025)

Now Joe Brady (promoted from OC)

New HC, same play-caller. Not a scheme reboot.

Pass catchers

upgrademedium

Was Kincaid / Shakir / Coleman / Palmer mix

Now DJ Moore traded in from Chicago; Shakir, Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer still there

Moore is the new X. The scheme did not change.

Continuity

Quarterback

neutralnone

Was Josh Allen

Now Josh Allen (Kyle Allen signed as backup)

Locked QB1. January 2026 fifth-metatarsal cleanup; in camp and throwing.

Play caller

neutrallow

Was Joe Brady as OC

Now Joe Brady still calls it as HC; Pete Carmichael Jr. is OC

Brady said from day one he keeps the headset. Carmichael game-plans, does not replace the caller.

Scheme & pace

neutrallow

Was Brady 2025 ~54% pass, league-leading rush attempts

Now Projected slightly more run (~51% pass), still Brady

James Cook and Allen's designed runs stay central.

Pass blocking

neutrallow

Was Dawkins–Anderson–McGovern–Torrence–Brown

Now LT Dion Dawkins, LG Alec Anderson (vs Austin Corbett), C Connor McGovern, RG O'Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown

Four return; David Edwards left. LG is Anderson vs Corbett — a competition, not a rebuild.

Run blocking

neutrallow

Was Same five; Edwards at LG

Now Edwards gone; Anderson/Corbett for LG. Other four return.

Continuity holds.

Tight end

neutrallow

Was Dalton Kincaid lead, Dawson Knox

Now Kincaid / Knox unchanged; Knox extended

No TE competition of note. Kincaid remains the pass-game TE.

Backfield

neutrallow

Was James Cook III, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

Now Cook III still the lead; Davis the change-of-pace

No high-capital back added. Cook's role is intact.

Team environment

neutrallow

Was McDermott perennial AFC contender

Now Brady year one, still a top roster

Win total and script stay in the positive-game-script bucket.

Vacated volume

Targets
Carries
Red zone
Air yards

No star skill departure. Volume is redistributed toward DJ Moore, not vacated.

Competition added

  • DJ Moorelow

    trade · trade from Chicago

    New weapon, not competition. New X next to Shakir and Kincaid.

This player

Projected role
Locked Bills starter.
Usage
Joe Brady still calls the offense as head coach. Designed runs and play-action remain. DJ Moore is the new X, not a new system.
Injury
Fifth-metatarsal avulsion cleaned up late January 2026 after he played through it in 2025. In camp as of August; no Week 1 absence reported.
Contract
Franchise quarterback. Not a 2026 contract-year concern.
Camp
July–August 2026 camp: chemistry with DJ Moore building (The Athletic, Jul 29). Deep shots landing in pads-on work. Brady's offense showing early continuity.

Upside

Moore gives Allen a downfield X without a scheme change. Brady continuity plus a better WR room is the cleanest upgrade.

Downside

Brady is a first-year HC wearing extra hats. Moore is an upgrade, not a rewrite; Coleman/Palmer still have to hold.

Risks

  • Played through a fifth-metatarsal issue in 2025; foot durability is the only medical cloud.medium
  • First-year head-coach workload even with Carmichael as OC.low

Sources

Notes come from the 2026 coaching and roster board (team sites, NFL.com, ESPN, The Athletic). Hold is the default when ADP already has the news.